Do Collectors Still Want a Colin McCahon? Part One
From pandemic peaks to patchy performance: McCahon’s market remains strong, but selectively
The McCahon market has shifted. The pandemic years brought record-breaking sales and near-perfect sell-through rates. But the average McCahon painting hasn’t been keeping pace with inflation despite the top end continuing to deliver impressive numbers.
This deep dive covers the last 15 years of auction data for McCahon’s paintings, works on paper, and prints. This week we look at the overall market trends, then next week we’ll focus on the performance of individual repeat sales and my own picks of what I would buy.
Key Findings
2021 and 2022 were peak years: 5 of the top 10 McCahon sales happened in just these two years,* including Is there anything of which one can say look this is new? that sold for $2.4m. Sell-through rates topped 90% implying that if a McCahon came to auction, it would almost certainly be sold.
Top-end paintings have soared, but the average hasn’t moved much: The median price for paintings by McCahon is up only 5% in five years, not even keeping pace with inflation. While the average painting price is up 47%, a sign that a handful of high-profile sales are lifting the headline numbers (Yes, maths is important is distinguishing the difference in those numbers). In Part 2, I’ll share an example of one work that increased an average 18% each year.
Fewer paintings at auction; likely more private sales: If you want a painting by McCahon now, you may need to look privately. Public auction supply has dropped sharply since 2023. Prints and works on paper, however, have remained steady.
Plentiful prints at accessible price points: Driven by the release of Tomorrow will be the same but not as this is in 2019 and 15 Drawings booklets coming to market, the print market is busier than ever. There are more options than ever before to own a McCahon at a lower entry point.
Works on paper remain steady performers: Solid sell-through and price consistency, though without the same headline-making growth as top-tier paintings. But, I’ll share in Part 2 two examples where works on paper have dropped in price in subsequent sales. And, honestly, there’s not many McCahon works on paper I like enough to want live with.
Market Deep Dive
A surge of McCahons at auction
The chart below shows the number of lots, by medium, coming to auction.
This shows what is publicly available online from the 4 major auction houses, so it’s less complete before ~2015. Nevertheless, two distinctive trends emerge:
Prints. Gradual increase in availability with spikes in 2019 and 2020. The 2019 spike was driven by a general increase of prints coming to the market; just one or two more of each edition, but enough to noticeably increase the overall count. Whereas the 2020 spike was driven by 15 lots of individual pages from McCahon’s 15 Drawings booklet at auction. Since 2020, the number of prints has remained high, contributed by Tomorrow will be the same but not as this is being released in 2019.
Paintings. There is a notable decline since 2023 in paintings coming to auction and the trend is continuing in 2025. I don’t have a conclusive answer, but I wouldn’t be surprised that more of these are changing hands privately given the premium prices these works are fetching. Gow Langsford had an incredible exhibition of McCahon’s in 2024 which may have drawn a number of potential works to their gallery instead.
Almost guaranteed sales
Sell-through rates show if works are being successfully sold at auction. It’s an indicator of the success of the auction, as well as bidder interest and effective estimate pricing. McCahon’s works generally achieve good sell-through rates and we can see they have mostly been above 70%, reaching a peak during the COVID years of 2020 - 2022. It’s incredible to see that of the 40 McCahon works that came to auction in 2022, only one didn’t sell, resulting in a 98% sell through rate that year. It’s now dropped back down to pre-COVID levels, and though 2024 was weak, 2025 is tracking better.
Although not shown in the graph above, there’s not much variation by medium. Prints are the strongest, followed closely by paintings, with works on paper selling about 10% below the sell-through rate of prints.
Prices are up, but it depends on medium and quality
I’ve grouped sales into five-year blocks to smooth out the noise and see the longer-term trends. On the surface, all three mediums (prints, works on paper, and paintings) have risen since 2010. But a closer look reveals a widening gap between average and median prices, especially for prints and paintings.
That gap tells us something important: a few blockbuster results are pulling up the average, while the “typical” McCahon is appreciating far more slowly.
Paintings: Between 2020 – 2024, six works sold for over $500k, including one that fetched more than $2 million. In the previous five years, only two works cleared $500k. This top-heavy activity pushed the average price up 47%, but the median rose just 5%, not even keeping pace with inflation.
Works on Paper: The steadiest category, with smaller gaps between average and median, suggesting a healthier middle market without wild outliers.
Prints: Between 2015-2019 and 2020-2024, average print prices climbed 57%, while median prices rose 16%. Much of this growth is tied to the 2019 release of Tomorrow will be the same but not as this is, which now accounts for half of the top 20 print sales.
Conclusion
The big picture is clear: McCahon’s top end remains in high demand, prints are more available than ever, and works on paper continue to tick along steadily. But the averages hide a more nuanced reality: not every McCahon has gone up in value.
Next week, I’ll dive into individual repeat sales to see which works have doubled in price and which have slipped backwards. These results will underline why caution is needed to ensure anyone buying a McCahon is getting in at the right price.
*I’m aware there are other record setting sales that pre-date auction house online records, but those haven’t been included in this analysis. For example, Let be, Let be that sold in Australia for over $1 million back in 2009.
